I’m writing this moments after hearing the Biden has dropped out.
Biden drops out. Endorses Harris.
Here are my initial thoughts on why this is a good thing AND WHAT WE NEED TO DO TO WIN.
- Biden wouldn’t drop out if he didn’t know for sure that Kamala could win. There are 2 kinds of polling data: internal campaign polls which are accurate and kept “close to the vest”, and public polls which are biased to make one candidate look good and have nothing to do with reality. Biden has access to internal polls. If his internal polls said KH can’t win, he’d stay in the race. Insiders have said many times that “Biden wants to stop Trump even if it means he isn’t the candidate”. I believe he’s done the right thing.
- The timing is excellent. If you understand the legal wrangling required to change candidates, get on the ballot in all 50 states, move campaign money, etc… this is the right time to do it. For example, Biden has $100 million in his campaign bank. BY LAW he can only spend it on himself or transfer it to KH. If he endorsed anyone else, the money would be locked up and unusable.
- If Biden was the candidate, the only thing the media would have talked about for the next 100 days would have been his age. Now we can FINALLY talk about policy… and Dems win when we talk about policy. Even though he his age isn’t a problem, and his health is fine, that’s all the media wants to talk about. It is preventing any discussion of policy, or Project 2025, or Biden’s successes.
We were swimming up stream. Now we can control the dialog.
AND THIS IS THE BIG ONE….
- The only way Dems have won (first terms) for the last 40 years have been by catching the GOP off-guard or as I like to say: “the old switch-a-roo”. Think about it this way… they knew Hilary wanted to run for president since the mid-1990s. Since that time the GOP had been rehearsing and planning how to run against her in 2012. When Obama won the primary unexpectedly, they didn’t know what the fuck to do. 15 years of planning down the drain!
That’s the only way first-term Dems have won!
- 1992: Nobody expected Clinton to win the primary. SNL even did a whole sketch during the primary about this. We won.
- 2000: Everyone expected Al Gore to run. The GOP had a brilliant plan to win. They won.
- 2008: GOP had planned for Hilary to run. Surprise! Obama wins the primary. We won.
- 2016: Hilary runs as expected. The GOP had a brilliant plan to beat her. They won. (AS I PREDICTED AT THE TIME)
- 2020: Biden joins the race at the last minute. He wins the primary unexpectedly. GOP is again caught off guard. We won.
WHAT WE NEED TO DO TO WIN:
Ok, folks! Now it’s time for unity. Now it’s time to GET TO WORK.
Kamala Harris 2024!
